In the future there are going to be ships using solid oxide fuel cells to replace generators. The propulsion engines will be replaced with electric motors powered by fuel cells, which will use green hydrogen.
https://splash247.com/solid-oxide-fuel-cell-developments-proliferate/
The future needs to be now, we must rush the transition to renewables and leave fossil fuels in the ground.
I think it’s the best way to remove carbon dioxide.
This article makes some claims that the empress splendor tree is the best choice to sequester CO2. They grow in 7 to 10 years and produce hardwood. I wonder if this is a different name for paulownia trees.
Every second, by thermonuclear fusion, the Sun converts 564 million tons of hydrogen to 560 million tons of helium. Where did 4 million tons go? The 4 million tons that are missing are converted into energy – photons, including sunlight. This energy amounts to 380 billion Megawatts, or 380 million Gigawatts, or 380,000 Terawatts, or 380 Petawatts.
Each photon bumps into the dense plasma inside the Sun. It takes tens of thousands of years for each photon to bounce around, wandering aimlessly until it reaches the outer edge of the Sun, where it flies into space.
The sunlight that reaches the Earth gives life to the plants which feed everything on Earth. The sunlight creates the weather, which gives us rain that waters the plants which we harvest to eat.
The Sun’s gravity has captured the Earth where it orbits around the Sun, once a year in the “Goldilocks Zone” where life can exist. The changes in the seasons are due to the amount of sunlight we get.
The ancient Egyptians worshipped the Sun God. Did they know something that we don’t know? They knew that the Sun grew the plants that give us life. But they probably didn’t know that the plants use green chlorophyll that takes in carbon dioxide and makes oxygen which is needed by most everything that grows on Earth. The Sun and its miracle, sunlight, makes possible life as we know it on Earth.
https://www.facebook.com/693504594115135/posts/2302829513182627/
From FB comment
I see all this speculation about what’s going to happen in the future with the Keystone Pipeline but no one brings up a few very important points.
There are already pipelines from Canada to the south, so this cancelled pipeline is increasing the existing amount coming into the US. The cancellation is not preventing the dilbit, it’s preventing the increase.
The amount of fossil fuels consumed in the US is going to decrease over time, hopefully dramatically in less than a decade. I think that much of the petroleum products will then be exported, which is not helpful to the GHG emissions. The higher the prices of fossil fuels, the better to decrease consumption.
There is a lot of money behind the pipeline. It’s time sensitive because eventually the decrease in consumption is going to render it a stranded asset. It might be blocked off into segments and be used as storage of pressurized hydrogen. But in any case, all the political noise isn’t going to change the future where fossil fuels will stop being consumed.
👍🤗
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Quoted from this NPR article:
<< [John] Katko, who was the first Republican to say he would vote to impeach, said that as a former federal prosecutor, he “must follow the law and the facts.”
He said, “To allow the President of the United States to incite this attack without consequence is a direct threat to the future of our democracy. For that reason, I cannot sit by without taking action.”
Maybe the state income tax should include a surcharge for water.
https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/19/california-water-bills-affordability-debt-crisis
We should be relieved that another of Trump’s assault on the laws was stopped by the courts. Trump tried to politicize the science and laws that were meant to protect the health of people and the Earth.
https://www.powermag.com/court-kills-trump-rule-on-power-plant-emissions/
From this YouTube video
At the 26:26 point he displays a slide about using EVs on the grid:i
A 200 mile range BEV can power the average American home for 2 days.
The previous blogs cover battery costs and battery storage costing less. This is about BEVs (battery electric vehicles) coming down in cost because the cost of the batteries is the most expensive part of the BEV and by 2023 the costs of batteries is predicted to be $100 per kWh. For a BEV with 75 kWh that’s about $7500.00. Now at the end of 2020 it’s about $160 per kWh or about $12000.00.
From 19:45 at https://youtu.be/O-kbzfWzvSI
He says EVs have 100 times fewer parts and are 10 times cheaper to maintain (Baron Funds). I would say that 100x should be more like 30x. He says that Tesla gives “infinite mile warranty”(source: Tesla blog). I would like to see that claim from a more authoritative source.
He shows a chart of the downward curve of the cost of battery electric vehicles and says (Quote)
“By 2025 the market will offer unsubsidized EVs with 200 mile range for $12,500.00.”
Actually there are EVs in China that are about that price range. They may not be allowed to import them to the US because they don’t meet crash safety tests.
He also says that “by 2025, every new car will be electric – for purely economic reasons.” Europe and California have a law that says every new car sold must be electric by 2035. I can see where that timeline may be sooner, but I’m not sure that it will happen by 2025. I hope it happens because we must stop using fossil fuels as quickly as possible in order to avoid catastrophic climate change. I heard Elon Musk say that they will get the cost of batteries down to under $100 per kWh, which will allow Tesla to offer EVs for $25,000.00. This should happen once the Gigafactories in Berlin, Germany and Austin, Texas are operational. The GF Texas will have a battery manufacturing facility – Tesla applied for permits for making batteries. The limit that is holding back Tesla and all BEV makers is the ability to supply enough batteries to meet the demands of EVs, and all the billions of other things in our lives that depend on Lithium batteries, such as cellphones.
He also says that the resale value of ICE (gasoline engine) cars will go down. With all the car loans, and the ICE vehicles worth much less, the payments of car loans will go up as they finance companies try to recover from the losses. I don’t know that much about financing but it looks like there will be disruption in the finance industry. I know that after a loan is made, the loan company can sell the loan to a big bank so they can get more money to loan. If the big banks get into the same horrible mess they got into in 2008-2009 then the big banks might become insolvent and come begging to government to save them again.
He goes on to say that by 2025, all cars will be new EVs. And the whole market for the ICE (internal combustion engine) will be wiped out by 2030. The ICE car companies will not be competitive when BEVs are much cheaper to buy, to maintain and to ‘fill up’ with a charge than the ICE vehicles. It’s obvious that there is no point in buying a used car when the customer can buy a new electric vehicle for $12,500.00 and it’s cheaper to maintain and costs 1/5th the $$ to charge.
He shows a slide:
THE VERGE Sept 19, 2019
Amazon orders 100,000 Electric Vans from Rivian
“Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos said the company placed an order for 100,000 electric delivery vans from Michigan-based startup Rivian. He expects… first vans to hit road by 2021 [and] all 100,000 vans to be on the road by 2024.”
Rivian CEO: vans will travel 400 miles on a single charge, hit 60 mph (100 Km/h] in < 3 seconds and eventually drive themselves.
Biz Model Innovation: Delivery Services Partners. Franchising the delivery business…
The # of US Vehicles Shrink 70%
He predicts that by 2024 the number of vehicles in the US will shrink by 70 percent. This is due to the number of commuters who will switch from IO (individual owner) to TaaS (Transportation as a Service). The cars sit unused for 95% of the time, so autonomous robo-taxis will change the vehicles to fleets of driverless vehicles with the vehicles being used much more of the time.
I see several potential conflicts with the future situation. The prices of BEVs will drop to $12,500.00 by 2025. But if individual ownership drops to nearly zero as shown, then the average commuter will have no incentive to buy a BEV so the low prices will not be attractive to consumers. They will only be interested in how much their monthly bill is for TaaS. The other aspect is that the lack of vehicle sales will counteract the downward pressure on the prices of BEVs. The prices will find a point where the EV prices will stabilize and the vehicle makers will have to consolidate in order to survive with such low volume of new vehicle sales.
There will be external effects to other businesses. The number of cars parked will be much lower, so fewer parking lots or structures will be needed. There will be a lot fewer vehicles on the roads, so much less crowded highways. The businesses such as car washes, auto supplies, collision repair shops, auto insurance companies, etc. will all have much less business. The drive-thru restaurants will have less business. The biggest reduction in business will be the gas stations – they will be replaced by EV charging stations. The hardware stores may end up selling containers of gasoline for lawnmowers, chainsaws, etc.
The Hornsdale Battery Storage has made a big disruption in the market for electricity in South Australia. Since it can supply electricity almost instantaneously it outcompetes the gas turbine generating plants even though it is a much smaller percent of the total electric supply. The South Australia state has a large amount of renewables – wind and solar – so it needs a source that can respond quickly to changes in wind or sunlight. The Hornsdale does just that. The gas turbines no longer have to be kept running as “standby baseload”, wasting fuel.
Quote from https://youtu.be/O-kbzfWzvSI
<< Tesla’s South Australia Battery Disrupting Gas Frequency Control and Ancillary Services
Tesla’s 100MW / 129 MWh Hornsdale grid battery storage plant in South Australia made A$1m (US$ 800k) over two days in wholesale market.
(1) It ramps from 0 to 100MW in 140 ms
-100x faster than gas.(1)
Tesla’s Battery with just 2% of the FCAS (Frequency Control & Ancillary Services) capacity has taken 55% market share while slashing wholesale prices (gas FCAS revenues) by 90%. (2)
(1) & (2) = RenewEconomy >>
Another quote
<< Batteries – Disrupting Centralized Power Generation
• The grid works like a just-in-time supply chain without inventory
• Grid: inefficient use of Assets
• $$ Billions in generating assets used just a few hours per year
Ex: ConEd – 32% of Generation assets used
<517 hrs/yr (5.9%)
Batteries flatten the demand curve, destroy pricing power and replace generation assets on the grid.
Disruption from Above:
1. Fossil Ancillary Services Disruption
2. Fossil Peaker Disruption
3. Baseload Disruption
Sources: (1) Con edison NY (2) GreenTech Media (3) NREL >>
Stranded Assets
This is where the utilities are hurt the most. They will be left holding natural gas power plants that are no longer profitable – stranded assets – the plants will be losing money.
The battery storage plants can be brought online in less than a year. The Hornsdale storage was online in well under 100 days!
From https://youtu.be/O-kbzfWzvSI
