Quantsuff sent me a link to some Kickstart entrepreneurs who are developing a high efficiency, high output LED light bulb. The lights are equivalent to 75 and 100 watt incandescent lights. They have already surpassed their $20,000 goal, so they really don’t need more contributions. One big reason why I would not consider contributing is that they have chosen a very bad product with which to try to compete in a market that is full of commodity priced light bulbs, and full of uninformed consumers who would never consider choosing a light bulb that costs tens of dollars when they can buy the same light bulb for under five dollars, sometimes for only a dollar or two. Those consumers have no concept of investing in technology to save money in the future.
Another reason why I would not consider backing them is the Philips L Prize LED light bulb. This is made or assembled in America, it is high light output, low power consumption, well designed and high quality, and it is marketed by one of the biggest companies in the world. I don’t believe they have a snowball’s chance in hell of competing against Philips. Or against GE or other major light makers, for that matter.
I have been praising the merits of the L Prize light to some co-workers who are techno-savvy, and it has fallen on deaf ears. Most of them have decided that the CFLs are good enough and save them enough money to not even consider changing to LED lights. I’m of the opinion that these entrepreneurs will never be able to market their product effectively to maintain a high enough sales to be able to get their costs down to a profitable level.
There is another factor that has taken place. Philips has made a change to the L Prize light that will guarantee that the lights will last a long time. They moved the white light phosphor from inside of the LED to outside, where it cannot deteriorate so badly. The biggest problem with white LEDs is that they may operate for only a few hundred hours, and the light output drops so drastically that they are no longer able to do the job. The ones I’ve tested have dropped to less than 1/4 of their original light output, probably more like 5 or 10 percent. They are useless for illumination. I think that these entrepreneurs may face this same problem when they have put a few hundred hours on their lights.
I could go on and discuss some other factors that are not in their favor, some of which they talk about in their prospectus, The challenges are formidable; there are so many external factors these entrepreneurs face that it is doubtful they will be able to succeed. Even so, I wish them the best of success, for the world needs more LED light bulbs.
