This YouTube video from Tony Seba of RethinkX shows the incredible cost reductions that have been and will be made to the cost of solar, wind plus battery storage. “SWB100” is his acronym for 100% solar, wind plus battery storage.
Seba states that SWB100 will be so low, per kWh, that it costs less than the operating costs of conventional thermal power plants. This is without subsidies. This will force utilities to shut down conventional fossil fuel plants (including nuclear) and declare them stranded assets.
By having 3 to 5 times the SWB100 plus 3 to 4 days’ storage, the grid will be able to run 100% of the time, without ‘base load’ generation.
This is the amazing part. By increasing the SWB100 to more than 5 times, the grid will have ‘Super Power.’ The grid will be able to power all of electric vehicles transportation, all of residential and commercial heating, and some of industrial heating.
We have to think about how this will work. There will be excess power most of the time during the annual solar and wind cycles. This excess power will be used to generate green hydrogen to replace the fossil fuel (gray) hydrogen that is now used to make fertilizer and other products. Since hydrogen can be stored underground, it will be generated abundantly during the summer when solar is at maximum, and used during the winter. If there is a time when solar or wind becomes intermittent, the hydrogen generation can be reduced or stopped and that excess power will be used for real time needs, in place of ‘base load.’
And SWB100 will be so low cost that it will be basically free. There has been concern that hydrogen has several disadvantages, but it is being generated with the excess ‘reserve power’ and its cost is extremely low, so there need not be concerns about the disadvantages.
This video doesn’t have enough time to go into details about how Seba comes up with these figures and conclusions. But this is clearly not fiction — it’s happening right now. They have more details in other presentations and documents; this presentation is truly amazing.
Another of Seba’s YouTube videos that explains more about solar, etc.