Jeffrey Levine
Said, “there is 0 chance they will get 30% of the market. At 10% they would be most successful with their margins.”
Tesla has stated that their business is not to prevent other car makers from competing; they want to get rid of ICEVs.
But Tesla is so far ahead of the others and is going so fast that it will be very difficult for others to catch them.
The big question is what happens when Tesla (or other car makers) reaches full level 5 autonomous vehicles. The prediction is that the autonomous ride hailing business will use the cars that sit parked and unused for 95% of the time to do what Uber and Lyft do: make money for the car owner. And that will mean that there will no longer be the need for 70% of the cars on the road. This will be a huge loss for car makers including Tesla but Tesla has the energy business to make enough money to succeed.
Will the other auto makers – that depend solely on autos – lose so much money that they will go out of business? Or will they merge and consolidate to keep afloat in a dwindling market? If this occurs there will very likely be a lot fewer car makers in a much smaller market, with more than one having greater than 10% share of a smaller market.