2021-09-28 Climate Change False Claims

From FB group Climate Change

********* BEGIN False Narrative **********

Jim Karlock [claims – includes his errors]

Watson Fixer-“You would get everyone killed due to your irresponsible attitude.” YOU are already getting thousands millions killed by denying them a a path out of poverty with affordable electricity. Here’s bad news for yu delusions: 1) Truth i not found by majority delusions like yours.

2) The IPCC says most headline climate scare stories are unsupported by evidence:Fact is that there is nothing unusual about today’s climate and thus nothing to explain with man’s CO2. This well respected source debunks several popular lies about climate:

Quotes & Facts from the IPCC (which is considered the bible of climate), NASA & the Bulletin of the American Metrological Society.

(You may have read other claims from the IPCC, usually from the Summary For Policy Makers without knowing that the summary is actually a political document written, word by word, by politicians from many countries including those looking for cash handouts. The below is from the science part of the report.)

1. Earth only warmed 0.78 degree C up to 2012.

[X]Using Had-CRUT4 and its uncertainty estimates, the warming from 1850-1900 to 1986-2005 (reference period for the modelling chapters and Annex I) is 0.61 [0.55 to 0.67] C (90% confidence interval), and the warming from 1850-1900 to 2003-2012 (the most recent decade) is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] C (Supplementary Material 2.SM.4.3.3).”

[X]Pg. 209 of https://www.ipcc. ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf

2. Man emits about 6% of total emissions.

Add the numbers on this NASA diagram: https://earthobservatory.nasa. gov/features/CarbonCycle/page1.php

3. CO2 causes only about 26-32% of the greenhouse effect. H20 causes 60-75%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect#Greenhouse _gases which is based on Table 3 of: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 78, No. 2, February 1997 – http://journals.ametsoc.

org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477(1997 )078<0197:EAGMEB>2.0. CO;2

4. We do not have enough data to say that hurricanes have increased. *Confidence remains low for long-term (centennial) changes in tropical cyclone activity, after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.” [X]pg 178 of https://www.ipcc. ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf

5. We do not have enough data to say that storms have increased.

*Confidence in large-scale trends in storminess or storminess proxies over the last century is low owing to inconsistencies between studies or lack of long-term data in some parts of the world (particularly in the SH). {2.6.4}” [X]pg 178 of https://www.ipcc. ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf

6. No evidence that normal sea level increase has accelerated. [X](Note that sea levels have been rising since the end of the last ice age – the issue is whether it is rising faster.)

[X]”When a 60-year oscillation is modeled along with an acceleration term, the estimated acceleration in GMSL since 1900 ranges from: 0.000 [-0.002 to 0.002] mm yr-2 in the Ray and Douglas (2011) record, 0.013 [0.007 to 0.019] mm yr-2 in the Jevrejeva et al. (2008) record, and 0.012 [0.009 to 0.015] mm yr-2 in the Church and White (2011) record. Thus, while there is more disagreement on the value of a 20th century acceleration in GMSL when accounting for multi-decadal fluctuations, two out of three records still indicate a significant positive value. The trend in GMSL observed since 1993, however, is not significantly larger than the estimate of 18-year trends in previous decades (e.g., 1920-1950).

Page 306 of https://www.ipcc. ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR 5_all_final.pdf

7. No evidence that floods have increased (per IPCC)

“AR4 WGI Chapter 3 (Trenberth et al., 2007) did not assess changes in floods but AR4 WGII concluded that there was not a general global trend in the incidence of floods (Kundzewicz et al., 2007). SREX went further to suggest that there was low agreement and thus low confidence at the global scale regarding changes in the magnitude or frequency of floods or even the sign of changes.”

[X]pg 230 of https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf

8. No evidence that droughts have increased

“Confidence is low for a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century, owing to lack of direct observations, methodological uncertainties and geographical inconsistencies in the trends.”

pg 178 of https://www.ipcc. ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR 5_all_final.pdf

9. Prediction of future climate is not possible.

The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/501.htm (IPCC third Assessment Report (2001) Section, page 774) and Page 771, https: //www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/TAR-14.pdf

Here is the whole paragraph: (note that this is from the 3rd Assessment Report. As of late 2021 we now have the *Sixth* Assessment Report.)

<< Improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and scenarios, including development and exploration of long-term ensemble simulations using complex models. The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. Rather the focus must be upon the prediction of the probability distribution of the system’s future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions. Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate is computationally intensive and requires the application of new methods of model diagnosis, but such statistical information is essential. >>

This shows that THERE IS NO CLIMATE EMERGENCY. Also see: http://www.debunkingclimate.com/arguements.html
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political climate/alarmist_claim_rebuttals_updated/

*********** END of false narrative *********

Why would this author take a quote from the Assessment Report out of context, and include the link to it in the text? If you go to the link and read the Assessment Report, you will find the full context of the quote.

You will find the full paragraph, which says the opposite of what the author claims! An example is the Wikipedia article on the greenhouse effect. Here is the quote.

<< According to the 2014 Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. Their effects, together with those of other anthropogenic [man-made] drivers, have been detected throughout the climate system and are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century'”. >>

The author is depending on the public to look at his or her document and never take the time to go to the links and read what it really says, and instead take the author’s word as the gospel truth (which it is not).

The author says:

#1. Earth only warmed 0.78 degree C up to 2012.

# 2. Go to https://earthobservatory.nasa. gov/features/CarbonCycle/page1.php
that the author gave and you will read the following quote:

<< This rise in temperature isn’t all the warming we will see based on current carbon dioxide concentrations. Greenhouse warming doesn’t happen right away because the ocean soaks up heat. This means that Earth’s temperature will increase at least another 0.6 degrees Celsius (1 degree Fahrenheit) because of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. The degree to which temperatures go up beyond that depends in part on how much more carbon humans release into the atmosphere in the future. >>

# 3. CO2 causes only about 26-32% of the greenhouse effect. H20 causes 60-75%.

We read the following quote from the link he gave in #2, which explains why CO2 controls the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, so CO2 increase links with water to cause the global warming.

<< Carbon dioxide causes about 20 percent of Earth’s greenhouse effect; water vapor accounts for about 50 percent; and clouds account for 25 percent. The rest is caused by small particles (aerosols) and minor greenhouse gases like methane.

Water vapor concentrations in the air are controlled by Earth’s temperature. Warmer temperatures evaporate more water from the oceans, expand air masses, and lead to higher humidity. Cooling causes water vapor to condense and fall out as rain, sleet, or snow.

Carbon dioxide, on the other hand, remains a gas at a wider range of atmospheric temperatures than water. Carbon dioxide molecules provide the initial greenhouse heating needed to maintain water vapor concentrations. When carbon dioxide concentrations drop, Earth cools, some water vapor falls out of the atmosphere, and the greenhouse warming caused by water vapor drops. Likewise, when carbon dioxide concentrations rise, air temperatures go up, and more water vapor evaporates into the atmosphere—which then amplifies greenhouse heating.

So while carbon dioxide contributes less to the overall greenhouse effect than water vapor, scientists have found that carbon dioxide is the gas that sets the temperature. Carbon dioxide controls the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere and thus the size of the greenhouse effect. >>

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